Kingsbond
Presentation Format
When people lack strong prior opinions or understanding, they can be easily manipulated by the way risk information is presented.
In one study, participants were asked to imagine they had lung cancer and had to choose between two therapies, surgery and radiation. Some subjects were then presented with the cumulative probabilities for surviving after the treatment. Other subjects received the same probabilities, except framed in terms of dying rather than surviving. Framing the statistics in terms of dying rather than surviving dropped the percentage of subjects choosing radiation over surgery from 44% to 18%.25 In another study, a hypothetical situation about the risk of side effects of an influenza vaccine was presented in either a probability format
(i.e. 5%) or a frequency format (i.e. 1 out of 20). The 42 subjects given the probability format of 5% were more likely to describe the risk as “uncommon” or “rare,” as opposed to the 43 people given the frequency format (1 out of 20).[p:4]
对统计学真的是不太懂，即使不翻译，能不能给我大概解释一下什么意思吗？
对各位的帮助一定感激涕零！
chunchun
我的理解是：同样的数值，用不同的数据格式呈现，就会得出可能不同的结论。比如在文中最后提到的，概率格式（5%）和频数格式（1/20）。前者往往会被人们得出这样的结论：不常见或罕见，概率很小，不会发生，即统计学上讲的小概率事件，而后者则不会。
呵呵，不知道理解的对不对。
JaneQ
Presentation Format (数据呈现格式)
When people lack strong prior opinions or understanding, they can be easily manipulated by the way risk information is presented.
如果先前没有（对某种治疗方法）很深的认识或很强的观点，人们就会轻易地被（这种治疗方法）危险性的呈现方式所左右。
............
Kingsbond
[quote]引用第2楼JaneQ于2008-07-26 02:07发表的“”:
Presentation Format (数据呈现格式)
When people lack strong prior opinions or understanding, they can be easily manipulated by the way risk information is presented.
如果先前没有（对某种治疗方法）很深的认识或很强的观点，人们就会轻易地被（这种治疗方法）危险性的呈现方式所左右。
.......[/quote]
非常感谢！
Kingsbond
[quote]引用第1楼chunchun于2008-07-18 16:59发表的“”:
我的理解是：同样的数值，用不同的数据格式呈现，就会得出可能不同的结论。比如在文中最后提到的，概率格式（5%）和频数格式（1/20）。前者往往会被人们得出这样的结论：不常见或罕见，概率很小，不会发生，即统计学上讲的小概率事件，而后者则不会。
呵呵，不知道理解的对不对。[/quote]
嗯，从上下文看来应该就是您说的意思那样！
